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BEIJING, Jan 19 (Reuters) – China’s economic growth likely slowed to a three‑year low in the fourth quarter as domestic demand softened, and while the full‑year pace is ​set to hit close to Beijing’s target, trade tensions and structural imbalances pose significant risks to the outlook.
The world’s second-largest economy showed remarkable resilience in 2025, helped by smaller-than-expected ‌U.S. tariff hikes and exporters’ push to diversify away from the United States, allowing policymakers to keep stimulus to modest levels.
Yet, Beijing is facing arguably its biggest challenge beyond simply keeping its economy on an even keel in the near term, as deep structural vulnerabilities add to the relentless pressure from a Trump administration intent on curbing China’s quest to build global scale in key areas including artificial intelligence and high-tech manufacturing.
A Reuters poll forecast gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.4% in October-December year-on-year, easing from 4.8% in the third quarter and hitting the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022 when the economy was still constrained by pandemic curbs, as consumption and investment faltered despite ‌resilient exports.